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The future of labor in the 2017 French presidential election
A presidential election is a fundamental moment because it allows us to take our distance from the short-time and question the future of our country. Indeed, a presidential candidate should not only present a precise set of measures, but rather share his own vision of the world and its main evolutions.
Since the 1973 oil crisis, employment has become the main preoccupation of the French. Thus, the presidential election is always an opportunity for candidates to express their proposals to reduce mass unemployment, but also to share the way he sees the future of labor in France and in the world.
These proposals and long-term visions differ according to the political sensitivities of the candidates. They reflect different philosophical and economic inspirations: optimistic or pessimistic, realistic or utopian, interventionist or liberal, protectionist or pro-globalization... These inspirations are due both to the candidates' convictions and to the influence of their economic advisers, who themselves subscribe to a school of economic thought.
The 2017 presidential election was an opportunity to understand the candidates' vision of the future of labor, at a time when this subject is particularly prevalent: fear of secular stagnation, technological revolution, automation... This election allowed us to better measure the influence of the scientific debate on this issue in the candidates' reflection, and to see to what extent they have become aware of the profound upheavals that will affect labor.
This article will study the top 5 candidates of the 2017 French presidential election, from the lowest to the highest score.
It will focus on the vision of the future of labor the candidates have shared during their campaign, the philosophical and scientific sources of their thought, and the proposals they have developed.
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> Benoit Hamon, 49, Parti Socialiste
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o His solutions: taxes on robots and universal income
Benoit Hamon made itself known for his bold proposals. To compensate the loss of wealth due to automation, he wanted to introduce a tax on robots. In order to cope with the rarefaction of jobs and to share work among all, he also wanted to reduce working time and encourage the use of part-time work. Finally, his most emblematic proposal was the basic universal income, so that everyone can live in a society where work will no longer be the center of life.
o Philosophical and scientific inspirations: secular stagnation and Keynesianism
Benoit Hamon was advised by economists Julia Cagé and Thomas Piketty. Julia Cagé is close to Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize in economics and a neo-Keynesian, who often criticizes the excesses of globalization. Well-known economist, Thomas Piketty has worked extensively on inequalities and believes that growth, contrary to Simon Kuznets' theory, will not reduce long-term inequalities.
Because he does not believe that growth is going to resume, Benoit Hamon is close to Robert Gordon's theses on secular stagnation, "a prolonged period of negligible or no economic growth in a market-based economy" (see our article on the subject). With regard to universal income, the economist Paul Krugman had mentioned this idea in 2013.
o Criticism: a Utopian Vision
"The project I'm taking on is a long-term project, which makes me accused of utopian, but there's nothing utopian about it.”[4] First, the study he uses has been widely criticized for ignoring the jobs created by new technologies. During the campaign, the French Employment Orientation Board published its own study, estimating that only 10% of jobs were at risk[5]. As for his proposals, his opponents denounced their utopian nature and their unfeasibility: a universal income would cost nearly 300 billion euros.
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> Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 65, France insoumise
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o His solutions: revived demand and massive investments
Jean-Luc Mélenchon has a very voluntarist vision of the State's action. To keep pace with the changes in the new economy, he proposed a massive investment plan of 100 billion in the ecological transition. At the same time, he wanted to strengthen social rights (work duration, pensions, unemployment) and raise the minimum wage to boost demand.
o Philosophical and scientific inspirations: Keynesianism and Neo-Marxism
Jean-Luc Mélenchon is advised by Jacques Généreux, a French economist who is very critical of liberalism and often classified as a neo-marxist. But his main inspiration is undoubtedly Keynesianism. For him, the current economic problems are mainly linked to weak demand and the rise of the markets to the detriment of the State.
o Criticism: a lack of realism
Like Benoit Hamon, Jean-Luc Mélenchon's economic program is often criticized for its lack of realism. Its investment plans and social reforms would indeed have an extremely high cost.
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> François Fillon, 63, Les Républicains
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o His solutions: budgetary orthodoxy and deregulation
The return of growth requires structural reforms aimed at reducing the cost of the French social and fiscal system and making the labor market more flexible: abolishing legal working hours, cutting 500,000 civil servants job, reducing corporate income tax and reducing health care costs.
o His philosophical and scientific inspirations: liberalism
François Fillon was mainly advised by business leaders, such as the insurer Henri de Castries. François Fillon is a pure liberal in economic terms. His vision of economics was inspired by economists such as Friedrich Hayek and Milton Friedman. If the economy is imperfect, it is because there are still too many barriers to free competition and rigidities in the labor market. Sustainable growth that benefits all countries is therefore possible through deregulation to bring them closer to perfect competition.
o Criticism: an ultra liberal
François Fillon has often been accused of being "ultra liberal" or being a “French Thatcher”. His opponents have highlighted the social consequences of his measures. He is also criticized for not taking sufficient account of the long-term changes in the labor market and its consequences for the French social model.
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o Her solutions: national preference
Marine Le Pen was in favor of an exit from the euro, in order to regain monetary sovereignty. She also wanted to set up an "intelligent protectionism" against unfair international competition: national preference, support for French industry and protection of strategic sectors.
o Her philosophical and scientific inspirations: protectionism
Marine Le Pen is advised by the economist Bernard Monod. Paradoxically, he defines himself as a libertarian, but he is also inspired by French economist Maurice Allais, winner of the Nobel prize for economics in 1998. Liberal and protectionist, he has denounced the social and economic consequences of globalization and its free trade ideology, "as fateful as it is erroneous".
o Criticism: a lack of feasibility
Marine Le Pen's economic program was the main weakness of its campaign, particularly regarding the feasibility of the exit from the euro. Moreover, she has not really developed a long-term vision of the mutation of labor.
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o His solutions: supporting innovation and reforming the social model
If new jobs are to be created, the labor market must be reformed so that it can adapt to innovation and technological change and not suffer them. On the one hand, the labor market has to be more flexible by deregulating standards that are considered too rigid. On the other hand, it is necessary to secure individual career rather than protecting the jobs themselves (universalization of unemployment insurance, development of vocational training, etc.).
o Philosophical and scientific inspirations: endogenous growth and destructive creation
One of Emmanuel Macron's main sources of inspiration is the economist Philippe Aghion. Philippe Aghion is a Schumpeterian economist who believes that the creation of new jobs depends on the destruction of obsolete jobs: the most performant and innovative companies will expand as the less adapted will disappear. In accordance with Aghion's theory of endogenous growth, innovation is the main source of economic growth. But it will also, in the long-term, reduce inequalities.
o Criticism: an optimistic and liberal vision
His opponents denounced his optimistic and liberal vision. He has been accused of complying with mainstream liberalism and of not questioning the economic and social consequences of globalization.
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[3] https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf
[4] http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2017/01/23/benoit-hamon-le-candidat-du-futur_a_21660531/
Although Benoit Hamon won only 6% of the vote, he undoubtedly made the future of labor a central issue in the presidential campaign. To everyone’s surprise, he had won the Socialist Party’s primaries by focusing his campaign on basic universal income.
o His vision of the future of labor: the rarefaction of jobs
Benoit Hamon does not "believe in growth"[1]. For him, economic growth is behind us. The technological revolution, with the development of artificial intelligence and robotization, will destroy nearly 3 million jobs in the coming years. Benoit Hamon used the high case scenario of a Roland Berger report published in 2014[2]. This report is itself based on the study by Oxford researchers Frey and Osborne[3]. Benoit Hamon thus has the vision of a rarefaction of jobs caused by the technological revolution.
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Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a leftist candidate like Benoit Hamon, has a rather different vision of the future of labor. He does not believe that work can disappear and wants to focus on environment and a more proactive industrial policy.
o His vision of the future of labor: the blue and green economy
Jean-Luc Mélenchon is also aware of the upheavals in work caused by the technological revolution. However, he sees work as a central tool for emancipation and as a “human right”. The jobs destroyed by robotization will be compensated by new jobs created in sectors not yet explored: the maritime economy, the social and solidarity economy and sustainable development. These new jobs will be sustainable and will reduce inequalities.
François Fillon, a right-wing candidate, also created a surprise by winning the primaries of his party. Former Prime Minister for 5 years, he is known for his liberal economic positions and budgetary orthodoxy.
o His vision of the future of labor: a classical vision of work
François Fillon has a classical view of labor. For him, France is lagging behind its European partners because of a lack of competitiveness. Germany is the most robotized country in Europe, and yet it has one of the lowest unemployment rates. Mass unemployment is not linked to technological change, but to an excessively burdensome social and fiscal system, which hinders the growth of companies and prevents them from adapting to globalization.
> Marine Le Pen, 48, Front National
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Marine Le Pen, a far right-wing candidate, reached the second round of the presidential election. Her vision of the economy is above all protectionist and anti-globalization.
o Her vision of the future of labor: globalization, a threat for jobs
For Marine Le Pen, the cause of the economic problems is primarily due to globalization and the liberal policy of the European Union. The best way to protect jobs threatened by the technological revolution is therefore to protect it from an uncontrolled globalization
> Emmanuel Macron, 39, En Marche
Now President of the Republic, he is the one who, together with Benoit Hamon, has given the most thought to the question of the future of labor during the campaign.
o His vision of the future of labor: innovation as a source of employment
Emmanuel Macron is aware, like Benoit Hamon, that technologies will profoundly change labor. In his book Revolution he writes: "Entire sections of our economies will have to undergo profound changes. Studies suggest that between 10% and 40% of jobs could be automated within 20 years. Digital technology will therefore profoundly shake up our collective organization. ». Nevertheless, he does not believe in the end of work and growth. On the contrary, innovation and new technologies will create new, better-qualified jobs.
